ADQ leader Mario Dumont walks past the National Assembly as he heads to his campaign bus after the provincial election call in Quebec City, Wednesday. THE CANADIAN PRESS/Jacques Boissinot
MONTREAL - After charging in from the outer margins of Quebec politics last year to become Opposition leader in the legislature, Mario Dumont will be under the microscope as never before in the next five weeks.
The Action democratique du Quebec leader led a stunning assault on the province in the 2007 election, winning 41 seats and handing Quebec its first minority government in more than a century.
Not only did the populist ADQ improve its election results 10-fold - it won four seats in the 2003 campaign - it fell short of Premier Jean Charest's Liberals by only seven seats.
Dumont successfully positioned the ADQ as an alternative to the two-party tug-of-war between federalists and separatists that had raged in Quebec since the 1970s.
He rode a conservative platform that earned support in rural regions, and he hailed the ADQ breakthrough as a victory for middle-class families and the elderly.
Now he's promising to give Quebecers a fresh start in the Dec. 8 election.
"We want to frame this election as cynicism versus hope," he said Wednesday.
"We're counting on Quebecers rejecting cynicism."
But come election night, Dumont might be left wondering where it all went wrong.
Recent polls suggest that ADQ support has been slipping, while Charest has rediscovered his groove and watched his popularity reach new heights.
Last month, the ADQ slide hit a low point when two members of Dumont's team crossed the national assembly floor to the Liberals and dissed their old boss for not listening to others.
Concordia University political scientist Harold Chorney said the 38-year-old leader has been strategically outplayed since he captured the Opposition leader title.
"He sort of got to a point where he looked like he was going to be next in line to become the premier of Quebec," said Chorney, who taught Dumont at the Montreal university in the early 1990s.
"Now that's sort of evaporated."
Chorney said Dumont's chosen "neo-con road to success" has not worked in Quebec. He believes the ADQ must shift to a more centrist trajectory to retain its seats.
"He almost pulled it off but politics is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity quite often," he said.
"That particular conjecture of events and opportunities is now passed."
Since the last election, the Liberals and the PQ have regularly attacked the ADQ's national assembly members for lacking experience.
Dumont has acknowledged his team doesn't have much political expertise but says it makes up for it with plenty of life experience.
That was the case in 2007 when, with the odd exception, the party fielded candidates not known outside their own riding.
Dumont was born in Cacouna, Que., a small town encompassed by the riding he represents, which is about 200 kilometres northeast of Quebec City.
In 1994, he co-founded the ADQ, took over as leader and was first elected to the legislature at age 24. This will be his fifth election campaign.
Dumont has said he isn't a traditional federalist and wants more "autonomy" or powers for Quebec within Canada, but nevertheless rejects the idea of holding a third sovereignty referendum.
The ADQ says an autonomous Quebec would be best placed to keep its economy secure and bring relief to the middle class.
He has also raised the prospect of getting Quebec to approve of the Constitution.
Chorney said despite the ADQ's wilting poll results and its failure to win a seat in the cosmopolitan Montreal area, Dumont should not be counted out.
"He was clearly a person with high ambition," Chorney said of his former student with whom he has not had contact for years.
"He was an interesting student, but pretty stubborn."
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